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sJacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers start at cornerback. The unknown receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have caught 90 passes. The Colts even had to change kickers. Despite all the injuries, the Colts are enjoying their usual December luxury of deciding when to rest their starters.
Those starters won’t rest this week — a win clinches home-field advantage for the playoffs — but a loss could benefit the Colts in the long run. The Colts’ nemesis is the Chargers, who beat them in the 2007 and 2008 playoffs and in the 2007 regular season. The Chargers have not won the A.F.C. West yet and are always one mistake from a minislump; the Broncos have the Raiders and Chiefs on their schedule (as well as the Eagles) and could retake the division with a hot streak.
So if the Colts win, they host the playoffs. If they lose, they could help the Broncos win the division, and force the Chargers to travel someplace like New England or Cincinnati for a first-round playoff game. No wonder Peyton Manning seems so relaxed.
Eagles (8-4) at Giants (7-5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Giants by 1
Andy Reid’s tenure with the Eagles has been like a sturdy, unfulfilling marriage, so Philadelphia fans responded to news of Reid’s contract extension with a Robert James Waller heroine sigh and a brief fling with Allen Iverson. Philly fans don’t want dependable 10-win seasons and nail-biting victories against the Redskins and Bears. They want fireworks, and Reid’s Eagles never deliver.
A three-game winning streak has masked the Eagles’ persistent problems. Their offensive line is always an injury from disaster, and Reid treats the simple arithmetic of goal-line offense (One Leonard Weaver + One Handoff = Touchdown) like differential calculus. Problems aside, the Eagles crushed the Giants in Week 8, and both Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson could return from concussions on Sunday night. A sweep of the Giants won’t erase a decade of unrequited passion, but it will bring back a little of the old spark.
Bengals (9-3) at Vikings (10-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Vikings by 6 1/2
The Vikings’ secondary is their weakness: their defensive backs have only six interceptions, and opposing receivers have scored 18 touchdowns. The Vikings protect their secondary in many ways — their pass rush keeps quarterbacks on the run, and their ball-control offense keeps opponents off the field — but the Cardinals were able to attack the corners once they controlled the pass rush and foiled Adrian Peterson in the backfield.
The Bengals can follow the Cardinals’ template. They have a solid run defense (allowing 981 total yards and 3.8 yards per carry), good pass protection (giving up 22 sacks in the same division as the Steelers and Ravens), and a wide receiver who lives to exploit overmatched cornerbacks. With so much to play for, Chad Ochocinco will shake off his latest distractions: $50,000 in celebration fines that are more a dare than a deterrent, and accusations that he defaulted on an auto loan, though it appears that he was just the co-signer. If banks have confidence in a guy named Ochocinco, we must really be on the road to economic recovery.
Saints (12-0) at Falcons (6-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 10 1/2
Drew Brees, like Tom Waits, is an unappreciated American master. He’s as good as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, the Bob Dylan and Bruce Springsteen of contemporary quarterbacks. (Brett Favre is Woody Guthrie, Brady Quinn is John Mayer, Jake Delhomme sings about credit reports.) Brees is finally getting recognition after several seasons as the least-heralded 4,000-yard passer in N.F.L. history. Brees is good enough to carry the Saints when their run defense is ineffective and their secondary is manned by McCornerbacks: extra-value veterans acquired off the waiver wire (Chris McAlister, just released in favor of Marcus McCauley) and the season-ticket list (Mike McKenzie).
With Matt Ryan still battling turf toe, Chris Redman may get another start. Redman sold insurance for two years after the Ravens released him, and he looked last Sunday like a man more comfortable with a premium table than a playbook. This week, he brings kerosene from the castle while the Saints sail for Singapore.
Dolphins (6-6) at Jaguars (7-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jaguars by 2 1/2
The inexplicable Jaguars have scored only six passing touchdowns, recorded 10 sacks, been outscored, 122-88, in the second half of the season, fumbled 21 times and missed seven field goals from 40 yards out. Yet they have a 7-5 record and a legitimate shot at a wild-card berth. Even the rough patches in their schedule are smoothing — if the Colts clinch home-field advantage with a win against the Broncos, the Jaguars will face Curtis Painter’s Barnstorming Nobodies instead of Peyton Manning and company in Week 15.
All of the good fortune has the Jaguars believing that fate has played a hand. “Yeah, it does feel like a year of destiny,” David Garrard said this week. Destiny is even manifest on at least one player’s body: the rookie lineman Eben Britton has “sacrifice for destiny” tattooed in Latin on his arm. (That’s not unusual in Jacksonville; Byron Leftwich had Tardus un Vindico on his wrist). Destiny works in strange ways, like 23-20 overtime wins against the Rams. Garrard also called 2007 a year of destiny, though he doesn’t appear on any Giants roster we could find. With the owner Wayne Weaver saying he will consider drafting Tim Tebow, Garrard’s real destiny may lie elsewhere.
Bills (4-8) at Chiefs (3-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: even
The Bills have started 10 different offensive linemen this season; the 11th, if forced to play, wins a coupon redeemable for a turkey breast or a ham on Dec. 23. The Bills have used seven different line combinations; they will go for eight if Kirk Chambers (one of four starting right tackles this season) is replaced by Jamon Meredith. The Chiefs have only 17 sacks despite a blitz-happy 3-4 defense, but a visit from the Bills will add ballast to their season stats. Fashionistas take note: despite the presence of two A.F.L. teams, this is not an official legacy game, and the Bills will no longer wear their throwback uniforms. Ralph Wilson has already put that helmet image of a bison back in the Lascaux cave where he found it.
Lions (2-10) at Ravens (6-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 13
The Ravens are one of seven A.F.C. teams between 5-7 and 6-6 and hoping for a holiday miracle, but the schedule looks promising: wins against the Lions, Bears and either the Steelers or Raiders will give them a shot at the postseason. The Lions won’t determine Matthew Stafford’s status until kickoff. The Ravens can be hard on both opposing quarterbacks and people with shoulder injuries: two referees strained their rotator cuffs while throwing 23 penalty flags on Monday night.
Jets (6-6) at Buccaneers (1-11)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jets by 3